Amazing phenomenal growth of risky assets that began last week, sohranyaetsya.Inevestory not record profits, even before the long weekend considering holidays in Japan, Canada and the United States. The question is - how long? Whether and where to stop and where?
Monday began with a continuation of the rally of risky assets. The aggregate dollar index DXY falls to 94.76 p., Without stopping at 95. And in the case of breakdown of support 94,5-94,7 can go further down to 93.5.
Stock prices are rising. S & P 500 has appreciated over 2000 (+ 0.05%). DAX -% plus 0.54, Nikkei - an increase of% 1.64, Shanghai - at 3.29%. On the other hand, the indicator "investment of fear" - Index VIX, has lost 2% is quite acceptable, quiet level of 17 points. Futures for Brent Brent added 0.75% at the turn of US $ 53.3 / bbl., WTI - plus 0 72% to USD 49.98 / bbl.
To suggest the nearest future dynamics, to see what works on this demand, and that he opposed? Factors of last week, I think, even, and with a vengeance. This dovish Fed minutes. decline in US oil inventories, "war premium" due to fears of supply disruptions due to the conflict in the Middle East. New factors are as follows. Continued reduction in the number of drilling rigs in the United States - over the past week to 14. to 794 pcs., continuing the trend of previous weeks. OPEC is actively promoting an increase in demand for hydrocarbons. At a conference in Kuwait, it was stated that reduced shipments from countries not members of the organization tion. October 21 is planned a meeting of experts of OPEC and other oil producing countries to coordinate production. It pushes Brent back to have reached around 54 dollars / barrel. At overcoming which it can go to 55.
But there are also negative for risky assets. Firstly, it is peak prices. Oil Brent has powerful technical hurdle at levels 54-54,2 dollars / barrel, which has been a rebound in the last week. It can serve as a stop and the Chinese factor.Tomorrow there are data on China's trade surplus in September, it is expected it to fall. Scheduled for Tuesday inflation in China, which are also expected in a negative way. And then there's the IMF cut its forecast for global economic growth in the world srednesrok. Hence - the possible reduction in demand for resources.
Therefore, the most likely to stop oil prices at these borders 54-54,2dol / bbl and possible pullback to support at 51,3-52,3 USD / bbl. a mixture of Brent. Obviously, as soon as the movement is lateral within said corridor.
Schedule futures prices mixture Brent
Mark Goikhman analyst TeleTrade
The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market