Global markets on tenterhooks in anticipation of Monday - the day of the release of data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the third quarter, which is expected to show a further slowdown in the second largest economy in the world.
While many economists agree that the economic growth rate in the period from July to September dropped below 7 percent (index of economic expansion in the first and second quarter of this year), the magnitude of deceleration remains a source of controversy. However, the pace growth below 7 percent would be the slowest since the first quarter of 2009 - the height of the global financial crisis - when China's economy expanded by 6.2 percent. In recent months, China has upset investors, a number of negative events - extreme instability in the domestic stock market, the sudden devaluation of the yuan, and as a series of disappointing economic data.What are the forecasts of the five largest banks in the world? (see also:
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch (America)
The forecast growth of 6.7 percent "According to our forecasts, in the third quarter annual GDP could drop from 7 to 6.7 percent, pointing to a huge downward pressure on the real sector of the economy in the face of volatility in the markets," - said in a research note the bank. "The slowdown in GDP growth mainly caused by a decline of the financial sector after the stock market crash and the slowdown in industrial production. "
Goldman Sachs (America)
The forecast growth of 6.8 percent "We expect annual growth of China's economy in the third quarter was 6.8 percent, slightly below the target level of 7 per cent of the bank", - analysts say the bank.
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (Australia)
The forecast growth of 6.4 percent "In September, China's economic activity remained weak. According to our forecasts, in the third quarter GDP will slow to 7 percent in the first half of the year to 6.4 percent, "- analysts say ANZ.
The forecast growth of 6.7 percent "As expected the Chinese economy to expand by 6.7 percent in the third quarter and 6.4 percent in the fourth. In 2016 the country's GDP, according to our projected to grow by 5.8 percent, "- said in a research note the bank." Given the disappointing growth prospects, we still expect a moderate fiscal stimulus from the central government and the continued easing of monetary policy. "
The forecast growth of 6.5 percent "after weak data on the industry from the NBS and Markit, mixed trade data indicate that in the third quarter, the economy can reach the bottom amid falling domestic and external demand", - the report says Barclays.
According to the materials WelTrade