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Main » 2015 » December » 17 » Cheap oil - is it good or bad?
Cheap oil - is it good or bad?

In the Wall Street community is actively circulating mass of opinions on the topic of the benefits of cheap oil for America. The most common judgment - low oil prices stimulate consumption - based on AMarkets.




Like, cheap oil - a cheap gasoline. So buyers have more money on retail spending and spending cash in the run supermarkets, increasing the US GDP. However, common sense suggests to turn to history. It has always been so - when oil prices sags to indecent lows, the world froze in anticipation of the collapse. And there came a collapse of recessions of varying severity.

On the market today can be found such views - garbage corporate debt has a chance of good growth in 2016 because the fact of increasing the rate regulator says that the US economy is strong. If the economy is strong - it creates an excellent soil for the growth of nizkoreytingovyh bonds. Sensible people again for a long time buried the idea. Also it is necessary to bury the idea about the fact that cheap oil will increase the incomes of American retail. By this logic, it turns out that the fall in crude oil from $ 40 to $ 35 should give an appropriate increase in retail sales in the US, but this correlation is not and will not.

Low oil prices, remain so long a time warp - it is bad for almost all the economic players, a world-wide symbol of the general economic slowdown. The only one who benefits from the situation in the short and possibly medium segment - air industry and transport, for which oil - a significant cost item. By the way, Maxim Oreshkin, deputy finance minister, predicts that oil will be traded on the segment $ 40-60 in the next, not much is not enough, 7 years.


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