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Main » 2018 » October » 29 » Can the "cold war" between the US and China?
10:55
Can the "cold war" between the US and China?

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Against the background of unleashed by trade disputes between the world's strongest economies, China and the United States in recent years one can often hear about the possibility of the "cold war." 

And if in 1946, at the beginning of the Cold War, the Prime Minister spoke of the Iron Curtain, today a similar rhetoric in favor of US Vice-President Mike Pence, blaming, this time China in dishonest actions in the economic sphere, in the theft of intellectual property, of undermining the authority of Trump and even military aggression against the States.

 

 

However, the fact that the cold war is inevitable and can not be prevented, not everyone agrees. So, Professor, Oxford University Ngvayer Tui Woods believes that although China and the authorities do not want to prevent a decline in confidence in the Communist Party and do not want to change the political and economic system, it will not lead to an outcome of the Cold War. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the country should continue its reforms, the main purpose of which is the merger of the Communist Party with the government in order to strengthen the influence of the government and reduce corruption. He considers unacceptable any external intervention in these processes.

But the US president, Donald Trump does not consider it necessary to "democratize" other countries. He pays no attention to the desire of the business elite business approach with the Chinese economy. The purpose of the Trump "again to make the country great" and that he wants to achieve by restricting the importation of imported goods in the United States. 

It should be understood that in the case of isolation of a new Cold War, after the current trade disputes between the US and China may loosen the two leading economies of the world. The threat is from China for sale reserve trillion dollars, which could cause a severe blow to the US economy, it is offset by the fact that it is not profitable, and China itself, as in this case, the value of US securities will collapse and the Celestial Empire also received a big loss.

Many Americans regard the introduction of the administration of Donald Trump's trade duties as stupid and self-destructive. A change in the North American Free Trade Agreement, which included items on the prohibition of negotiations with Canada and Mexico to China was met with disapproval, as the Americans have growing confidence in the fact that such steps would deprive States allies and lead to job cuts. 

So Trump team action and in fact alienated many partners and at the moment the United States were in the minority in the G7, the G20 and in the Framework Convention of the United Nations Climate Change. And this organization, after the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership continues to exist, but without US partners. Thus, its foreign policy Trump chose the path of loneliness.

Autograph rejection of US leadership contributes to the emergence of multi-polarity in the world. Since their exit from the Iranian nuclear agreement US President antagonize the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, Russia and the European Union. 

Because of the US sanctions against Iran, many countries and corporations find it profitable to still stay US partners. This is due to the fact that States may block access to the SWIFT network, through which the settlement of trade transactions with oil. These payments are made in US dollars.

But this situation does not last forever. In late August of this year, Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas made a proposal to create independent US calculation channels in Europe. The EU also wants to implement plans on conducting a legitimate business with Iran in the US confrontation. 

At the same time, the Russian Federation also announces the development of its own payment transfer system to be safe from the possibility of disabling it from the SWIFT, if the US will impose tough new sanctions against Russia. And China has since 2015 been developing a similar system, which is able to provide payments in Chinese yuan.

It is clear that these systems can not yet compete with the SWIFT, the level of comfort the product of financial transactions, but in the case of an alternative, the new system will be strengthened and become no less influential than SWIFT. 

It is possible that as an alternative to the Cold War will be a new world system, which was headed by the US, China, Russia and Germany, which tend to occupy leading positions in their respective regions.

 

Based on materials WELTRADE

 

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