Consolidation currency in anticipation of the Fed rate continues. Even the output current economic performance does not affect the dynamics.
The range of movement of currency pairs almost keep in place the dollar index - aggregate market sentiment indicator in relation to its main competitor. The index stands at 95.5, slightly intensifying the morning to the closing price of 15.09 (0.09%). Meanwhile, risk appetite continues to decline slightly. "Fear index» VIX rose to 24.25 (4.5%). Chinese stock index to the psychologically important ShanghaiCompositeupal Rebeja 3000 n. Showing a peak of 3.5%. It is remarkable that this is even against the background that oil prices are rising slightly in anticipation of inventory data in the US from the API. Moreover, risk aversion is not assured even growing Japanese Nikkei. It increased by 0.34% on the results of the morning meeting of the Bank of Japan to preserve the "dovish" rhetoric and left unchanged the rate and amount of asset purchase.
Cautious investors and added that now goes to the penultimate FOMC important indicator for the US - August retail sales and industrial production in the US, which is expected worse than the previous. (The latter figure will be tomorrow's CPI).
Under these conditions, the probability of survival range trading at higher levels of correctional currencies to the dollar. For the main currency pair EUR / USD has formed a range between 1.1260 and 1,1370.Nastroy market "bull", but probably the upper limit of the range stand as resistance. The movement in the pair today may be further stimulated by the release of figures for the euro area. It is the balance of trade and the index of sentiment in the business environment ZEW.
Interesting dynamics in the commodity group of currencies. For example, look at the USD / CAD. The couple does not seek up, even though the risk aversion and the decline in the Chinese stock market, as it once was.1.33 is becoming an elusive goal, and the more likely a local campaign to 1.3220.
From this support can rebound upward trend, but also within a fairly narrow range. Explanation - all the same - waiting for news from America and the stabilization of oil prices.
Under these conditions, the investment strategy works - short entry on local intraday momentum with small take-profit and stop-loss.
Chart EUR / USDH4:
Mark Goikhman analyst TeleTrade
The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market