If last week the market dictate the Fed, now ruled by PMI - index of business activity. Today, as we recall, went on the decline in China. This morning, the flames suddenly added Japan. Manufacturing PMI for September lost there from 51.7 to 50.9 points. These figures are considered to be leading indicators, as they reflect the possible changes in the production of the future. And this pessimism is the probability of a slowdown in the industry.
It is noteworthy that today hits indices continue. His word to tell the appropriate indicators for Germany and the United States.
In addition, today we have to pay attention to orders for durable goods and new home sales in the United States.These parameters are also indirect criteria of demand - consumption and investment, which makes them important enough to a guide on the upcoming Fed rate hike.
And stand out data for the euro area. In yesterday's speech European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that if necessary, the program of monetary stimulus could be expanded and extended. So far this has not led to the sale Euros. Today's data on volumes of short-term funding of banks within TLTRO may shed light on the need for liquidity in the euro area. Therefore TLTRO growth over the projected 73.8 billion. Euro will lead, obviously, to the fall of the European currency.
However, the technical core of the currency pair EUR / USD likely to further shift away from no penetration to the support level 1.1120 corrective resistance at 1.1240 - 1.1290. This is evidenced by a break through 1.1217 up with updating the current highs and confirming the formation of the rising trend correction. It is advisable to consider the correction after a deal to sell as a pair of downward trend remains the main focus.
It is interesting movement in the pair USD / CAD. Canadian in yesterday's movement interrupted once again many years to a maximum of 1.3356. Technically, this means the likelihood continue to conquer new heights. However, there is no consolidation above 1.3350, pair likely waste down. Moreover, there is no significant decline in oil prices, especially on brand WTI - based on oil exports. Locally, the black gold is now rising because of declining stocks in the US (at 1.925 million. Barrels against the forecast of 1.5 million.). Therefore, it makes sense to wait for the correction and get up to buy the pair with 1.3220 levels.
Chart EUR / USD H4:
Mark Goikhman analyst TeleTrade
The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market