Interviewed by Bloomberg expert 's assume that the probability that the discontent of the recession in the Russian economy will result in protests, is about 30%. In our view, the probability of large-scale protests in Russia is close to zero.
The economic situation in Russia is much better than it appears to the experts in the West. Last year, the economic downturn was 3.5-4%, in 2014 there was weak growth, and in 2016 the dynamics of the GDP will be about zero. Unemployment remains low and the inflation rate for the year may not be less than 10%, which should lead to a reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and reduce interest rates on loans with leading banks.
It should also be recalled that the Russians are quite comfortable with the economic difficulties. In the 90 years of decline in GDP was 50%, hyperinflation devalued all private savings, reliance on mass privatization and voucher investment funds did not work, the delay of pensions and salaries in the public sector reached six months. However, in addition to events in October 1993, the political situation is stable. Even during the default and the collapse of the banking system in August 1998, it was no riots.
The worsening economic situation may cause the resignation of the government and policy shift to a more left-socialist economic model - to Sergei Glazyev ideas. At the same time President Vladimir Putin's rating is very high, his actions, especially in foreign policy in line with expectations of the majority of Russians.
However, in September parliamentary elections in Russia, which are traditionally used for the non-systemic opposition protests. However, they are unlikely to receive broad support in society. We believe that the political risks of investments in Russian ruble and Russian stocks are low.