The election of Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States breathed new life into betting on the fact that the differences in the economic and monetary policy will cause the euro fall to parity with the dollar for the first time since 2002.
Traders estimate the probability that the European currency will drop to $ 1 for the year is 43%, the data show compiled by Bloomberg. In just a week the chances of parity almost doubled. The promises of the newly elected head of the White House to increase infrastructure spending and tax cuts fueled speculation that economic growth will accelerate in the United States. This, according to experts, will push the Fed officials to raise interest rates at a faster pace. Against this background, the US currency on Monday, the index peaked in February, while the euro dropped to $ 1.07 - the minimum value of the currency this year.
For analysts of Deutsche Bank AG election results were enough to reconsider euro range in which the currency is traded for a few months, and to reduce the forecast for 2017 to below $ 1.
Betting parity raged this year when the Fed has revised downward the forecast for the number of rate increases before the end of the year, while the ECB Prodo lzhal add an unprecedented number of incentives.
"Talk about the divergence of policies in Europe and the United States have returned, - wrote in a research note George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank in London. - Winning the Trump effect on it. "
According to analysts, the euro will fall to $ 1.05 by the end of this year and to 95 cents by the end of 2017, which would be the minimum value since June 2002. Experts on Wall Street still expect a higher rate of the single currency. According to Bloomberg consensus forecast, the euro will strengthen to $ 1.11 by the end of 2017.
Deutsche Bank forecasts that the dollar will take the place of the most high-yielding currency among the countries of the "Big Ten", if the Fed will raise rates next month.
Based on materials WELTRADE