It begins a series of meetings of central banks. First, today - Canada, then tomorrow - New Zealand and England in pyatnitsu- Russia. And then, on September 16-17, we are waiting for the main fire - Fed. It is interesting that on the eve of these events, the main horror story Markets - China - began to show signs of stabilization. Bring fruit massive infusion of funds into the stock market (according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in August they amounted to 600 billion yuan). Chinese Ministry of Finance announced that it would accelerate the implementation of major economic projects and reduced the tax burden of companies. A little more than was the risk appetite, rising sensitive indicators - stocks. Shanghai Composite gained as much as 2,32%, Nikkei triumphantly increased by 7.7%. US S & P 500 also added 2.51%. This is reflected in the oil quotes. Futures for Brent traded at 49.62 dollars. - With an increase of 0,232%, WTI is stable at around 45.91.
Against the background of the termination of risk aversion the main currency pair EUR / USD shows a desire to decrease. Functions of the euro as a funding currency recovered that operations "carry trade" again makes actual lending in euros and investing in higher-yielding assets.
On the morning of September 9 on EUR / USD breached the strong support for 1, 1150. Since the previous local maximum at 1.1216 was updated on, formed the current downward trend in the H1. Besides these fundamental factors it allows planning short positions for this instrument to levels 1,12-1,1210. Local target - 1.11.
For commodity currencies determining factors in the coming days will be a decision on interest rates Bank of Canada and the RBNZ.
Based on the totality of the reasons, I think it unlikely that a rate cut in Canada. Taking into account the need to have happened in July, down from 0.75% to 0.5%, good recent performance of the economy (retail sales, the increase in the number of jobs). And hardly Stephen Poloz will be decided to take drastic action before the Fed meeting. Therefore, with a further correction of USD / CAD to the support 1,3115-1,3140. Overall, however, retained a soft policy of the monetary authorities of the country and the differential with its orientation towards the US dollar. At the registration and renewal of pressure on oil prices upward trend remains bright for Canadians. From the levels indicated above, it is reasonable to consider buying a pair. But the goals are the already achieved the height of 1.33.
Chart EUR / USD H4:
Mark Goikhman analyst TeleTrade
The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market