Oil prices will recover much faster than the market expects, says Barclays.
Oil prices are likely to rise much faster than expected by the market at the moment to meet the expected demand by the end of the decade, according to analysts Barclays.
In the last analysis of the oil market banking of 14 October, analysts predict that oil "Brent" will rise to $ 85 per barrel in 2020, in their baseline scenario. This level is far from the $ 65 per barrel, which is the curve of futures points at the moment. Even if the scenario of low demand, the forecast of the bank is $ 75, well above the curve of the futures, while in the case of high demand Barclays predicts the price of $ 100.
Oil "Brent" was trading around $ 49.5 per barrel on Thursday, while oil was at $ 46.17. "In any reasonable demand scenarios (ranging from 0.9 million barrels a day to 1.4 million barrels a day, the average annual growth in demand for 2016-2020 gg.), prices should rise, or will not be enough supply, "- the report said analysts led by Michael Cohen. Strategists at Barclays argued that the prices of the current historically low levels, energy companies will not continue to produce oil in sufficient quantities, because they run the risk of losing money. In addition, capital expenditure in the oil industry rapidly declined in response to falling prices.This suggests that the supply from existing fields will fall, while new projects will be introduced operation to replace them. "It is expected that the investments will be reduced by 20% globally in 2015 and 5-10% in 2016 year, which will create a supply crisis ", - analysts say Barclays. - "After some excess inventory will be used in 2016 and 2017, we believe that the assessment of the price after, is likely to be a constant». Barclays believes that the price of Brent crude oil will rise to $ 63 per barrel in 2016 , $ 65 - in 2017, $ 74 - in 2018, and $ 83 - in 2019, before they reach $ 85 in 2020. Recall that trade oil in Forex is easy and simple to find out more!
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