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Main » 2016 » August » 8 » Autumn promises to be hot
Autumn promises to be hot



Who will win Trump or Clinton - is that the game is not yet played. Both candidates have a chance, based on the dynamics of the polls by state. Around two candidates plenty of negative information - for AMarkets materials.




Pre-election polls may be of great interest to the investor. In this case the investor is now the most important thing - to guess the right trend. The outcome of the election, no doubt, will affect the markets. Clinton's victory could mean a continuation of the course of Obama - a third term, so to speak, for the Obama policy. Softening monetary policy and zero interest rates, too, are likely to remain. For investors it is all pluses. Cheap money symbolize cheap loans (2-3%), which you can buy the stock assets. You can buy assets with high risk and high return and earn the spread between high rates of bonds and lending rate.


In case Trump win, it will be different. Trump promises to return America jobs in the industrial segment, which now outsource to third world countries. Moot point. America competitive in the industry is due to the clear delegation of a number of industrial functions in countries where lower wages. Well, and, of course, the United States win by robotics promsektora. The latter implies that the robots take jobs from people, which of course leads to a loss of jobs. Is Trump robots will remove, to give work to "blue-collar"? No. For financial markets Trump - a dark horse. It is unclear how and what it will do. It is unclear how it will affect the innovation economy if Trump wins. That is why many economists believe that Clinton would win, even if the pre-election polls will say one hundred percent in favor of the Republicans. Just American elite will not tolerate uncertainty - why Trump is not elected. Why then, in general, Trump? With it fun. The pre-election rhetoric of brighter, more fun. Opposition should deliver "circuses" to the masses and to create the illusion of democracy. This is its main purpose.


The closer to the election, the more volatile the financial markets will be. 2-3% per day for the dynamics of the index - this is what we should be ready as early as September. Elections in November. Historically, that in October - the most ugly month for investors (to take at least 1929, 1987, 2008.). Solid sales. August - the perfect time to think in advance your trading strategy before the end of 2016.


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