The main event of November in the world - the 58th presidential election in the United States. They will be held exactly one week later, on 8 November. The Americans will have a difficult choice. Compared to previous years the election, both candidates - Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump - has obvious disadvantages. This means that any outcome of the confrontation will not be a surprise.
The results of preliminary surveys vary depending on the media and their sympathy for the Democratic / Republican Party. Based on rates of bookmakers, the favorite is Hillary Clinton. Several months ago, the likelihood of her winning was estimated at 65-70%. But in recent years against the background of health problems in Clinton and active electoral program of Trump's chances of Republicans and Democrats virtually leveled. The past several rounds of debate, showed no clear favorite, but only emphasized the difference between their positions on foreign policy and economic development.
What the election results bode markets? Democrats are considered supporters of fiscal stimulus, and after Clinton's arrival in the White House, the markets are waiting for new economic stimulus programs. For the Republicans, traditionally more important US "internal problems", so Wall Street is looking for the presidency shocking Trump cautiously. In any case, the elected slogans and real politics - are two big differences, so do not be afraid of scary election. If you look historically, before the elections rose, and after the elections, regardless of the outcome in most cases decrease. Given that in the S & P 500 is brewing correction, it seems, it will be so this time.
The election results may have a significant impact on the oil market. Clinton is a supporter of the development of alternative energy and reduce oil consumption. Accordingly, after her arrival in the White House investment and tax subsidies for oil can be reduced and redirected to the producers of "pure" energy. Implications for Brent quotations twofold, as a result of such a policy will be reduced and the production and consumption of oil products in the United States.
In turn, Trump was in favor of energy independence for the United States. It is planned to develop as alternative energy sources, as well as traditional, that is, investment in oil production can be increased. Such a policy could lead to an increase in the production of energy in the United States. In any case, much will depend on the form in which the election programs will be implemented.
According to the materials of Alpari