If oil prices fall further - importers of raw materials will suffer from this circumstance, as strange at first glance, it may sound - experts speculated Citigroup - Materials AMarkets.
Why it could happen. Citi gives the answer - oil-exporting countries will eliminate their investments in emerging markets to stop the losses. The outflow of capital from the EM necessarily override all the benefits from the additional income generated by importing cheap raw materials (from the same region in developing countries).
Such an alignment is concerned, for example, Turkey and India. This year, exporting crude oil will have a deficit in the trade account for the first time since 1998. It is quite a distinct sign for investors - to leave this market in more favorable regions.
Sovereign funds assets in the oil regions of the world (a total of about $ 4 trillion under management) in the region have reduced investments in developing countries by $ 50 billion in 2015. Last year, the EM-country grew more slowly in developed countries - and this is the first time since 2003 (data Citi).