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Main » 2015 » October » 29 » An alternative index hints at recession
An alternative index hints at recession

The index, called McCulley indicator - measures the main orders CAPEX, or manufactured goods orders except for military vehicles and aircraft - is now at the lowest level since 2009 - based on AMarkets.




Index got its name in honor of the former managing director of the fund PIMCO - Paul Makkalleya. The ex-boss at one time regarded as the main indicator of the measure of the level of health of the economy.

The report on durable goods orders, released Tuesday, showed that in September the index core capex orders (net capital expenditure business) fell by 7.9% against the same period last year. 3-month average index dropped to -5.9% in September - at least in the past few years. Of course, this is bad news - it means that companies squeeze investment in equipment, which will ensure production in the future. The fall index was largely due to the situation on the energy market - against the backdrop of the company's raw materials sector desheveyuschey tighten their production volumes.

Dynamics indicator McCulley indicator, including the dynamics of the 3-month average index: 

Another alternative measure of economic well-being - Atlanta Fed GDP Now indicator (GDP forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) - is now down to a level of 0.8% for the third quarter - versus + 2.1% consensus forecast of analysts.


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