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Main » 2015 » October » 5 » A weak labor market and appetite for risk: up to where the raw materials rise
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A weak labor market and appetite for risk: up to where the raw materials rise
 
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US labor market, showing very bad data, almost buried the possibility of raising interest rates in October. And from 60 to 33%, according to Bloomberg , it reduced the likelihood of this in December. Now it became absolutely clear terms Janet Yellen in recent speeches that good employment data do not reflect the real underutilized in the labor market. And another important link between unemployment and inflation. The average salary in September, has not grown, but is expected to increase by 0.2%. This casts doubt on and cherished by the Fed increase prices in order to 2% per year. Of course, the regulator and  the market will look at further   development of indicators. And it was reassuring speech S.Fishera, D Bullard, it is not so bad and weak growth in the labor market in one month - not an indicator. But it is very nervous markets in recent years, the negative is trusted more than the positives.

 

 

 

 

Who d A financial markets this situation leads to a correction of the dollar index is down two days from 96.2 to 95.8 and has a tendency to decrease further for the purpose of 95,3-95,6. Amplify stocks because of the assumption that the postponement of the growth rate, which traditionally leads to  an outflow of money from the stock. There is a fall in yields and US Treasuries. For example, the S & P 500 increased 5.09 to 1.43%, while the yield on 10-year debt securities in the United States is losing 2.49%.Against this background, increased risk appetite. Its setting - "fear index» VIX - lose weight immediately by 7.14% to a level of 21 points (normal value is considered to be 15 p.).

 

According to current market dependencies such position leads to an increase in resource assets, especially crude oil, as it is expressed in dollars. The demand for black gold traditionally rises, if the growing risk appetite. In the evening, another report came out 4.09 oilfield services company Baker Hughes. He showed that the number of drilling rigs in the United States according fell sharply this week - 29 units. It can bring a supply reduction, which causes a rise in prices.    Futures for Brent blend was added 1.02% to 48.62 USD / bbl., For WTI - 46,01 dollars / barrel (+ 1.03%).

In the currency market, the beneficiaries of this growth appears, in particular, the triad Currency: Australian, New Zealand, Canadian dollars. During the day they likely rise against the dollar. The Australian is able to grow to 0,7110-0,7160 where intersected significant zones of resistance to horizontal technical lines and Fibonacci levels from the last pulse on the N4.

Similar dynamics for the pair NZD / USD is the purpose of the correctional levels 0,6560-0,66. For the Canadian dollar to the US are relevant support 1,30-1,3050.

Chart AUD / USD H4: 

 

Mark Goikhman analyst  TeleTrade

The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market 

 

 

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