Practical advice to the new President of America - come to the polls with a prepared plan to combat the recession expected in 2018. Poll Citigroup, held September 4-9, pointed out that the majority of market players are ready to retsecsii in 2018 - based on AMarkets.
The collective wisdom of experts has a certain ground. The experts came from judging the length of the stages of the business cycle of 9 years. When the current albeit sluggish, yet the recovery is complete, America will plunge into another pit of stagnation. While in the modern history of the American economy is the longest cycle of recovery / growth occurred in the segment decade that ended in 2001. The current recovery cycle has crossed a line average of 5 years. This growth rate is very slow. Salaries here have only just begun to grow in 2014. GDP growth is that low.
It is expected that the US economy will grow by 2.5% per year in 2015 - a little more than what it was in 2014.And it is much slower than what it was in previous cycles of recovery. Results of the survey also suggest that the next US president will have only one calendar year in the reserve, to prevent or mitigate a new recession.The survey results suggest that there is a 13% probability of occurrence of a new recession in the next 12 months. When compared with the results of previous surveys, the probability as high as possible in the history of these expert interviews (since 2013).
According to the chief economist at Citigroup estimates Vilema Buiter, there is a 55% probability of occurrence of a new recession in a couple of years. The main concern - this is China, which came out from under the financial control (both figuratively Buiter) and the risk to present the world more and more surprises. If this is a real tool to stimulate long-term growth from Chinese officials there.