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Usdcad in the global downward trend (Figure 1). The downward trend line spent January highs, 2002 and October 4, 2008. of course, there is some error, but on such a grand scale picture looks more or less visible.

If we look at the dynamics of couples over the last 10 years, we can see that the pair did fall from 1.6196 (2002) to 0.9056 (at least 2007). Then, in 2008, the rate has soared up to the mark in the area of 1.3. In early 2009, the Canadian also became sharply fall (another words failing) from this price. In 2011, was an attempt to test the historical troughs, but the bears don't hold up to approximately 4 pieces.

Технический анализ пары USD/CAD. Долгосрочная перспектива

Fig. 1 Pair usdcad, one month time-frame

Views: 799 | Added by: mik | Date: 20.06.2012 | Comments (0)

The euro failed to give depth to purchase. In General, it is proposed to consider the situation as a triangle. Today, expect another attempt to adjust to the bottom of treugla, where we choose the tunneling structure with break channel which rassmotrivaem purchase. The goal at this point will be at 1.2840.


Технический анализ на 21.06.2012 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

Views: 760 | Added by: mik | Date: 20.06.2012 | Comments (0)

After doubts and fears which prevailed in the first day of trading this week at a session Tuesday saw a return to optimism. The dollar fell against European majors and succumbed to the Japanese yen. Obviously, a victory for pro-European parties in elections in Greece, was seen as a factor that reduces the risk of the country of the euro zone in the near future, and this led to an increase in closing long positions on the dollar. Additive certainty that in the eurozone could be achieved relative stability, came and the rhetoric of the EU leaders who claimed the likelihood of certain concessions Athens to fulfil commitments to austerity. To top it all off, the pressure on the bucks could make out statements from the FED on a regular smâgčeniâh in monetary policy after the FOMC meeting ending on Wednesday.

 Publication of data on State's economy too, in a moment of increased pressure on the green. Number of bookmarks new homes in may fell by 4.8% m/m, when forecasts assumed that will increase by 0.4% m/m, building permits, which are an indicator of prospects, has been granted more at 7.9%-6.0% m/m in April and this turned out to be significantly higher than forecast waiting for + 1.0% m/m in the news today out of macrostatistics are not planned, but very significant political component. The market will focus on the FED'S rate decision announcement and press conference, b. Bernanke. Among market participants there is a view that the CENTRAL BANK will announce expanded štatovskij program "twist", which includes sales of short-term bonds and buy, long-term. However, as it seems, if such a decision is made, then increasing volatility is unlikely, since it is not excluded that this scenario has already been posted in quotes. At the same time, the absence of any reference to this account will cause a wave of frustration and will support the "Boxer Gennady".

Views: 784 | Added by: mik | Date: 20.06.2012 | Comments (0)

 Select the small. In the current situation, we only and still bet that Fedrezerv will now understand that it is ready to act, which, in turn, pripodnimet a pair EUR/USD the 1.2800/25, WTI CRUDE to $ 90, S&P 1390/500 to 1400 items, and at the same time will cause depreciation of the USD/RUR to 31.40-31.60. Not to say that we strongly believe in all this, but the news background leaves us no choice. In other words, we are not seeing a new base or fresh ideas for playing on decrease in euro or, for example, the WTI. Although, if Ben Bernanke on Thursday again «otmolčitsâ», and the new Greek Government and will not be created on this week, we will be filled with pessimism in the context of the prospects for the next week and July.

 THE FED

12 of 21 primary dealers believe that FedRezerv will announce today, or at least make a move towards new incentive measures in support of the American economy. So is it or not will be known in 20:30 IIC and IIC 22:30 when there will be a press conference with Ben Bernanke. If the President of the Central Bank of the United States will be able to reassure the markets, euphoria (greenhouse conditions, thaw) markets can last up to 31 June meeting FED. In this case, up to this point, we can watch the "sidebar" trend or upward adjustment in the EUR/USD to fall in May. Don't forget that many have already prepared that something for the economy also will make and the ECB within the framework of the meeting of 5 July.
Views: 751 | Added by: mik | Date: 20.06.2012 | Comments (0)

Market participants do not exclude that, following its two-day meeting, which will end today, Central Bank of the United States announce new measures easing of monetary policy. This means increasing the supply of money in the economy, strengthening fears of inflation and devaluation of the national currency. This stimulates demand for gold, which is regarded as a refuge from such risks. At the same time, the Fed can avoid a full-scale quantitative easing and take too moderate in terms of market measures. Against this background, the gold price might drop. The market is closely monitoring the problems in the eurozone. Yet another sovereign debt crisis could force investors to sell gold and buy more secure dollar. In the face of this uncertainty and pending a decision by the FED, investors would prefer slightly adjust the position and not to commit too active.

 From a technical point of view, the prospects for gold remain positive until it has traded above the high 1600.00. This implies resistance testing, which will allow 1640.00 continue growth in the range of 1655.00-which borders, 1670.00 100-and 200-day SMA, continue to resist 1700.00. Further upward leap forward towards mark 1800.00 as is not excluded. Deterioration in the Outlook for gold is only possible in case of reverse drop below 1600.00, which may be followed by testing the strong support 1520.00-1530.00, overcoming which will confirm the descending trend area 1450.00.

Views: 779 | Added by: mik | Date: 20.06.2012 | Comments (0)

Dollar again under pressure from the United States, and the possibility of further weakening remains high.

 EUR/USD

 
Figure. 1. daily chart
 
The pair continues to trade above the high 1.2600. The RSI of the daily chart is in no man's land. From here, you have the following options for further development of the situation:
 
Views: 741 | Added by: mik | Date: 20.06.2012 | Comments (0)

EUR USD Euro Dollar "

Currency pair euro-dollar continues to move through the ascending channel. The immediate goal is a growth area of 1.2745. You can consider buying euros with a close stop. The overall objective of working out the bubbling model is 1.29 area. On the daily chart of the index values of the relative strength of tested probituû trendline. That also indicates the further growth couples. The cancellation option will fall below € 1.25.



Technical analysis and Forex forecast 20.06.2012 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
Views: 735 | Added by: mik | Date: 19.06.2012 | Comments (0)

Spain is on the verge of losing access to the debt markets. Interest rates on 10-year bonds on the secondary market rose above the 7.2%. Today has been a regular host of Spanish bonds. On average, the yield for a 12-month securities rose to 5.07% (one month ago, the same paper left with a hammer under 2.98%) and 18-month — up to 5.1% (3.1%) a month earlier had many experts had expected that with the relatively successful results of Greek election situation as the rest, but this is not the case.

Investors fear that the € 100 billion allocated in the recovery of the Spanish banks, will be only the first step more capacious financial assistance programme. On Thursday scheduled another placement of debt obligations. If the rates will continue to grow, the risks of recurrence of Greek script will become even higher. To alleviate the situation, monetary authorities have shifted the emphasis on the issue of securities with lower maturity, because these loans are costing the Government more cheaply a few percent Apr.

Views: 806 | Added by: mik | Date: 19.06.2012 | Comments (0)

The fate of risky assets (S&P 500, WTI, EURO) now seem to be entirely dependent on the G20 Summit (18-19 June) and FRS (19-20 June).

 
The G20, Spain
In the first case, one must say that Spain is still something weighs in the balance, and the fact that such a sentiment indicator dynamics of return 10-year State bonds this problem the country has reached 7.25% yesterday, transcends the limits of very moderate growth potential EUR/USD in a moment. Actually, thinking about any purchase euros at this point should be borne in mind that, that wouldn't have happened now in the eurozone, long-term trend in the EUR/USD for a long time will stay top-down.

 We have not assumed that a significant increase of the euro and risky assets in June and July is only possible when there are two such risk, as fears about the launch QE3 in United States, as well as possible normalization of the situation in Europe, in particular the decline in yields on Spanish Securities below 7%, with a provision of the country already at the country level, significant package of assistance.

Views: 849 | Added by: mik | Date: 19.06.2012 | Comments (0)

During last Sunday's elections in Greece won the party "new democracy", advocating that the terms of the plan. This development prevented the immediate withdrawal of their country of the eurozone. However, the market remains apprehensive about failure of the winner to form a Government. At the same time, the main troublemaker remained Spain, the cost of borrowing on 10-letnm securities jumped above 7%. This put pressure on gold, which are sensitive to negative news from the euro zone. However, the later investors chose to restore the position in anticipation of the FED'S meeting. Recently, hopes for new measures easing of monetary policy in the United States should support prices for gold as investors sought to guard against inflation and depreciation of the dollar, which is likely to result in increased liquidity.

 From a technical point of view, the prospects for gold are positive, as long as it has traded above the high 1600.00. As soon as testing is expected to continue, overcoming which resistance 1640.00 will continue growth in the range of 1655.00-which borders, 1670.00 100-and 200-day SMA, continue to resist 1700.00. Further upward leap forward towards mark 1800.00 as is not excluded. Deterioration in the Outlook for gold is only possible in case of reverse drop below 1600.00, which may be followed by testing the strong support 1520.00-1530.00, overcoming which will confirm the descending trend area 1450.00.

Views: 812 | Added by: mik | Date: 19.06.2012 | Comments (0)

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