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 Forex  traders bullish positions in the Japanese yen on Monday amid escalating expectations  as to what the Bank of Japan will follow the U.S. Federal Reserve and will announce a new bond-buying stage later this week. 

The Japanese currency, which was one of the leading safe haven in the market, has demonstrated the widespread decline in anticipation of the two-day meeting of the central bank of Japan, which begins Tuesday. 

 Meanwhile, the euro briefly rose to a new four-month high against the U.S. dollar before the fall at the end of the session. The fall in the second half of the day was partly due to the weakening of the risky assets due to a sharp drop in oil prices. 

Despite the decline, the single European currency is still trading with the increase against the yen. According to Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, investors are starting to feel more comfortable in possession of short positions in the yen. As of September 11, the total net long positions in the yen against the dollar, open speculative traders, was 5.3 billion dollars, according to the latest weekly report of the Commission on the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading. 

Reduction of these positions or open new short positions will reduce the yen. On Monday night, the dollar / yen was trading at 78.71 on EBS system against 78.39 at the close of trading on Friday, as the euro / yen - at 103.19 against 102.91. 

Views: 805 | Added by: mik | Date: 18.09.2012 | Comments (0)

 Fed weakened the dollar

The main events of the last week, due to which the U.S. dollar fell sharply. German Federal Constitutional Court ruled in favor of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Therefore, ESM can now be realized. At present, the financial markets believe ESM and ECB as a reliable and sufficient protection.

Fed announced purchase program of mortgage-backed securities and decided to keep zero rates until mid-2015.

 The new program of asset purchases FOMS undertakes to expand the Fed's balance sequentially until the labor market has not improved significantly.

Market drivers to start the week.

This week, the U.S. will start for the Regional Research PMI, from manufacturing index FBI in New York on Monday.

German, French and euro area and the UK consumer price index is likely to attract attention. We expect to see a slight increase in September.

Views: 840 | Added by: mik | Date: 17.09.2012 | Comments (0)


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Views: 1376 | Added by: mik | Date: 16.09.2012 | Comments (0)

The U.S. dollar fell to a four-month low against the euro after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced the open-ended bond-buying program, which, according to some market participants, more than expected. 

 On the foreign exchange market  greenback has fallen after the Operations Committee on the Federal Open Market announced monthly purchasing mortgage-backed securities to the tune of $ 40 billion as long as the situation in the labor market does not improve. The Central Bank will inject more money into the economy to maintain low interest rates and stimulate lending and investment. Traders quickly pushed up the currencies of developing countries and countries that export commodities, such as the Australian dollar, putting the fact that investors will sell U.S. dollars to buy higher-yielding assets. 

The improved market sentiment also increased the demand for the euro, which briefly traded above 1.30 dollars for the first time since May 9. 

"The Fed is an important source of support" for the high-yielding currencies, said Alan Ruskin, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in New York. 

The dollar / Japanese yen late Thursday trading system EBS to 77.48 against 77.85 at the close of trading on Wednesday, as the dollar / Swiss franc - at 0.9353 against 0.9375. 

Views: 830 | Added by: mik | Date: 14.09.2012 | Comments (0)

Results of the meeting of the Central United States on September 12-13.

· The Fed will buy mortgage bonds MBS
· Fed extends the period of zero rates until mid-2015
· The Fed will buy a $ 40 billion a month
· Fed will buy assets until the situation on the labor market has not improved
· The Fed will continue operation until the end of the year Twist
· The Fed will keep expansionary policy for a considerable time
· Fed will continue the operation "twist" to the end of the year
· The Fed will keep expansionary policy for a considerable time

 Grand total - Fed surpassed most expectations. Which greatly encouraged investors - is that asset repurchase program was indefinite (open ended), that is, the Federal Reserve pledged to pump system with liquidity as the economy does not get better. It is possible that QE3 will last for the next few years.  

Views: 606 | Added by: mik | Date: 14.09.2012 | Comments (0)

The central bank said it would buy a monthly mortgage securities worth $ 40 billion, and said it may extend the purchase, if the situation in the U.S. labor market improves. The Fed also extended the forecast period of low interest rates until mid-2015 to late 2014. In addition, it was announced to increase the term "operation twist."Gold benefits from the policy of "easy money", like the one that was announced on Thursday as investors seek a hedge against inflation, the growth of which may be a consequence of this policy. 

 Also, the Fed's actions lead to the weakening U.S. dollar, which increases the demand for gold , on the one hand, as an alternative and more lucrative asset, and, on the other hand, due to the reduction of its value for holders of other currencies. The result showed a sharp increase in quotes after the announcement of the outcome of the Fed meeting.

Views: 568 | Added by: mik | Date: 14.09.2012 | Comments (0)

Pressure on the U.S. dollar strengthened, and most likely, it will remain in a downtrend.


Fig. 1. Daily chart
Pair received additional growth momentum and now has overcome the 1.3000 mark, which once again confirms the development of medium-term uptrend in the resistance range 1.3300-1.3500. The only obstacle remains overbought, for which you may need to reduce short-term correction, such as the 200-day SMA, extending slightly above 1.2800, after which growth is likely to resume. However, when mounted below the 200-day SMA correction may take longer to test the nature of the support range 1.2465-1.2550, where the 100-day SMA. At the same time, a further break down at this point seems unlikely.

Views: 632 | Added by: mik | Date: 14.09.2012 | Comments (0)

Gold futures then go up, and falling in price on Wednesday, before concluding day of a slight decrease in the background of the fact that traders are trying to predict the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce new stimulus measures on Thursday.  

At the end of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, quotes, the most actively traded December gold futures were down 1.20 dollars (0.1%) to 1733.70 dollars per troy ounce.  

 Gold prices held above $ 1,700 on Friday on hopes that the Fed decides to start a new phase of quantitative easing. However, they fell from a meeting of the central bank on Wednesday.  

"Perhaps the market overestimates" expressed his earlier optimism, said Bart Melek, chief strategist at TD Securities.  

The Fed will complete a two-day meeting today, with the publication of the statement is expected around 16:30 GMT. Will be followed by a press conference of the president of the central bank chairman Ben Bernanke at 18:15 GMT.  

In the past, the price of gold rose against the implementation of mitigation measures of the central bank.Monetary easing, which injects new cash into the financial system, can increase the fear of inflation, stimulating demand for precious metals as a store of value illiquid.  

Views: 828 | Added by: mik | Date: 13.09.2012 | Comments (1)

In the morning, gold price rose to a short-term six-month high after the German Constitutional Court ruled that the country could ratify the European stability mechanism. This increased optimism in the markets and put pressure on the dollar, so that the gold gained positive momentum. However, later, a small wave of profit rates returned to previous levels. Some market participants took the opportunity to adjust the position, as have uncertainty about the Fed's decision to launch a new incentive program. Gold prices for some time are significantly above $ 1700.00 per ounce on hopes that the Fed decides to start a new phase of quantitative easing. However, if these expectations are not met, the gold would not remain at that level. At the same time, if the Fed will announce a commutation, gold could rise above $ 1800.00 dollars.

 From a technical point of view, the prospects of gold remains positive, as long as it is kept above the range of 1650.00-1700.00, the lower limit of which is the 200-day SMA. It is expected to continue growing resistance 1800.00, to overcome which will confirm the growth to a maximum 1920.00. At the same time, falling below $ 1700.00 almost certainly trigger testing the 200-day SMA, consolidating below which worsened the prospects for the metal, aiming to further reduce the level in the direction of 1600.00.

Views: 642 | Added by: mik | Date: 13.09.2012 | Comments (0)

The index of U.S. consumer confidence in the U.S. economy rose in September to 50.8 points from 45.6 points in August. 

reading above 50 points indicates the prevalence of optimistic estimates, below - pessimistic.

 As the indicator of BNY Mellon iFlow, the euro continues to benefit the most from the recent weakness of the tide against the U.S. dollar - net purchases of euro remains the largest. Meanwhile, the "rate of outflow from the dollar is now more than three times the average flow for the last year," said Samar Shankar of BNY. Expectations of a third round of quantitative easing, coupled with a warning by Moody's of a possible downgrade of the U.S. next year, encouraged investors to get rid of the dollar in favor of the majority of other currencies Big Ten, and the Canadian and New Zealand dollars have some of the strongest outflows, says Shankar. WSJ dollar index fell below 70 and now stands at 69,687. 

Views: 812 | Added by: mik | Date: 12.09.2012 | Comments (0)

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