Economist David Rosenberg notes 7 risks that investors may face in the event that the US Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates - based on AMarkets.
According to Rosenberg estimates that if the US GDP will grow in the 4th quarter rate of 2.4% year on year, and the unemployment rate will fall to 4.8%, the Fed is likely to go on increasing rates in December 2016.
Global risks for investors, with increased rates:
1. In the last December when the Fed increased the rate, the stock fell 13.3%.
2. US elections - that even roulette. If Hillary wins, not Trump, shares can go either way. It is unpredictable. But much can and fall. The increase in rates in December spoil the mood of investors, in any case. Hillary Victory for the stock market will turn to the dark tone, figuratively speaking.
3. The November elections in Italy may lead to the exit of Italy from the EU and Rahu Italian banks. Hitting the shares throughout the global market will be inevitable.
4. Fed will raise rates with an eye on the Bank of Japan - whether to devalue the yen. Given the fact that the increase in rates will make the USD more.
5. BREXIT - long-term risk for the markets. One of the next steps in this direction - the application of Article 50 under the general rules of EU membership.
6. Elections in Germany, France, the Netherlands - also risk. While it's events with a high degree of unpredictability.
7. The growth of short-term rates LIBOR (helps to assess the cost of capital globally) - a shock to the markets and its participants. The difference between the LIBOR spread and TED (the difference between the rate of three-month LIBOR and three-month Treasury bill rate) increased from a level of 20 basis points over the past few months 60 bp This is the maximum level, if you count from May 2009 (when the US banks were estimated by the market as financially insolvent).