Performing the head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen waited in the hope of clarifying the position of the regulator monetary policy after the September 17 statement of uncertainty. Since this week were more "hawkish" speech, the other members of the Fed, it could be called 3 D-model market. Because participants were FOMC, as the selection, all the names on the "D" - James, John, Dennis, respectively, Bullard, Williams, Lockhart. And finally, there was the fourth "D" - she Janet Yellen. And the words of her remarkably contrasted with the results of the September meeting and walked in unison with promises of these officials. It has been said that the policy of tightening monetary system remains unchanged, with the rate increase, it is important not to tighten, and it could happen before the end of 2015, and America will overcome external risks. Thus, there was a "4 D-model" of the market, aimed at a gradual strengthening of the dollar.
The aggregate dollar index soared from 95.6 to 96.7 points. And now, when the week was over safely wariness of investors, there is a great probability of resumption of the gradual growth of the dollar with the immediate goal of the dollar index in 97-97,5 points.
Driver motion today can serve the US GDP for the 2nd quarter. If confirmed its preliminary value growth of 3.7%, the dollar will retain the momentum began to strengthen.
As the main currency pair EUR / USD was justified our forecast yesterday's correction to 1.1290, after which the movement has gone down (http://forex.osobye.ru/stati/delovaja-aktivnost-dast-zony-vhoda-po-evro- i-kanadcu.html). Now graphically in the range H4 is fulfilled downward "flag" to support 1,11-1,1120. Her breakout would lead the pair to 1,1030-1,1050. But more than likely seen a significant pullback after such a movement with 1.1296 to 1.1115. This adjustment, especially on profit taking at the end of the week could give rise to 1,1190-1,1220. The technical levels of horizontal extrema and 50% Fibonacci line of the last pulse.
From these zones is reasonable to enter into short positions on EUR / USD with the aim of 1.1180. At the same time, it is hardly worth catching this correction and the support to buy the pair, as the mood 4 D - market decline of the euro has not been canceled.
Another option could be a transaction. Wait until the break of 1.11 and securing lower prices to rise in sales with the aim of 1.1050.
Chart EUR / USD H4:
Mark Goikhman analyst TeleTrade
The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market