According to the forecast Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., the shares will not be pulled up quickly this year, as have exhausted the potential of growth. Nevertheless, the market may be a short-term rally towards the end of the year against the background of the portfolio managers striving to urgently step up trades to soon order to improve its annual result - based on Amarkets.
4 signals that the shares will not be in the near future to grow strongly:
1. Investors do not want to take excessive risk and do not buy / drained junk bonds. It is worth noting the growth of the spread between risky and risk-free debt debt of the same duration, but with a higher credit rating.
2. Increase in the number of scandalous stories about corporate activities. The focus of this year - Volkswagen, Petrobras, General Motors. This factor hurting confidence in the securities among investors.
3. At the end of the year it is expected that the growth rate of corporate profits will be in the compression zone.This has not happened since 2007, and 2008 to 2001. Unless, of course, the fourth quarter will not fire up, which is highly unlikely.
4. A neutral monetary policy, the risk of sink to the level of tightening, if the FED will raise rates. Shares of companies in the US grew by monetary stimulus on the background of a favorable ZIRP-mode. If the latter is abolished - at the market will not remain the soil for growth.
Economists are increasingly talking about the risk of transformation of America in the monetary sense to China - t. E. Non-market economy, fully controlled by the authorities through ZIRP, QE and other "primitive" measures.