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Main » 2019 » October » 04

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Weak economic statistics from the United States support the upward motion vector pair EUR / USD. After the decline of the manufacturing sector PMI to its lowest level since June 2009, falling to three-year lows marked by US PMI non-manufacturing sector. This is a major concern of investors about the spread of negative trends in all areas of the US economy. Against this backdrop, investors are revising their expectations for further Fed action. When evaluated at 19%, now it is 53% the probability of two rate cuts before the end of the year last week, according to CME Group. On Wednesday the figure was 39%.

 

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Views: 18 | Added by: mik | Date: 04.10.2019 | Comments (0)

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Gold maintains an upward trend movement against the publication of another batch of weak data from the US and the strengthening of fears associated with the slowdown of the global economy.


Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector of the United States in September fell to a 3-year low. This has increased fears about the spread of the negative trend of the production sphere to other parts of the economy. A whole series of weak economic data this week has strengthened investors' expectations about the Fed's further easing of monetary policy to maintain high growth. According to the CME Group, traders estimate the probability of two more rate cuts at 53%, against 39% in the medium and only 19% last week. This is a bullish signal for gold.

 

 

 

Views: 17 | Added by: mik | Date: 04.10.2019 | Comments (0)

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Events today:

USA: Change in the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls for September.

US: Changes in average hourly wages for September.


The euro exchange rate against the dollar forex forecast for EURUSD pair today 10/04/2019


Reducing the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve at the discount rate on 30 October, is now 88%, according to CME. Usually, when the probability is about 80%, the market expectations coincide with the opinion of the US central bank. Ahead of the players expect the two events, which may either reinforce this trend, or change it. The first event today, when in the second half of the session will report on the labor market in the US in September. The second event will take place next week, when Washington will conclude trade talks between the US and China. Today's NFP release can not please investors positive data, as all the leading indicators point to a worse than expected data out of the median. Against this background, we should expect short-term growth of EURUSD.


EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.0959 / 1.0945, and take profit 1.1001

 

 

Views: 18 | Added by: mik | Date: 04.10.2019 | Comments (0)

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