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Main » 2015 » December » 29 » 2016 - inflation or deflation?
2016 - inflation or deflation?

When the Fed raised rates in December, inflation was at that time less than 2% - based on AMarkets.




In November, the dynamics of prices, counting on consumer costs (excluding the most volatile costs of food and fuel) - core inflation - was 1.3%. Base CPI (a popular measure of inflation) grew by 2% in November - is the maximum growth since July 2012. And it reflects the effect of the long-term impact of a strong dollar and a weak market for employed feedstock - in this environment, inflation, sooner or later begins to grow.


However, if you try to consider taking into account the dynamics of inflation in fuel prices - the rise in prices to get a flat, closer to the negative. That is why many say about the alleged deflation and its potential hazards.

On the chart - the difference in the dynamics of the two indicators CPI. The first - the base, excluding food and raw materials. The second - the full, taking into account the dynamics of prices for food, oil and gas:

So one of the most popular stories of 2016 among economists and analysts will be - that will cover the US - inflation or deflation ... and then not be afraid anymore.


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