According to David Rosenberg, America's chances to plunge into recession - is about 1 to 3. If it is not strong labor market, there would be more - at AMarkets materials.
10 reasons of Rosenberg's why the United States would be threatened in the near future:
1. Global monetary policy in the future will demonstrate even more weaknesses, opening more and more new weaknesses. Chief among them - the inability to affect the economic growth and the inability to cope with the after-effects of the already implemented monetary measures.
2. Oil prices remain volatile. Currently there are no signals that Saudi Arabia and some other major players are ready to make concessions - to lower production, mainly. 3. The growing risks of corporate defaults. 4. Consumers do not spend cash, which managed to save from the cheapened fuel prices. They are saving money. Those. the money does not work and does not multiply the GDP. 5. The devaluation of China's currency, the "hard landing" risk on the part of China. 6.Slowing US GDP growth. Reduced corporate profit growth. Compression of the manufacturing sector, CAPEX costs. 7. Weak European banks. 8. The resumption of economic problems in the European periphery. 9. Risk that countries, including America, will move in the negative zone interest rates to combat zero-growth economy. 10. Uncertainty around the US elections. It is difficult to predict the outcome of the election.